US e-commerce holiday sales projected to grow 33 percent from 2019

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Online shopping will become more popular than ever this holiday season.

It’s no secret that online shopping is more popular than ever. With Amazon Prime eliminating the hassle of shipping and competitors trying to keep up, people are turning to online retailers to do most of their shopping. With the holiday season right around the corner and COVID-19 limiting the operations of some brick and mortar stores, online shopping will only be more popular in the closing months of 2020.

Accordingly, new data from Adobe Analytics predicts that online sales in the United States during the months of November and December will reach $189 billion. If that holds true, it would mark a 33 percent year-over-year increase compared to 2019. It would also blow existing records out of the water.

Virtual Sales

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted just about every facet of normal life. That also applies to the shopping patterns of consumers.

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In recent years, online sales have become an important part of the holiday shopping season. Consumers who don’t want to brave the wilds of in-person Black Friday shopping have found options like virtual doorbusters and Prime Day more attractive.

Typically, the holiday shopping rush begins with Black Friday. This year, that could be different. Rather than waiting to load up on turkey and then go online to find the best deals, consumers have already started their holiday shopping.

Adobe Analytics projects that the typical “Cyber Week” (made up of Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and other early deals) could be more of a “Cyber Month.”

That’s partly due to the fact that many retailers are planning deep discounts in the first two weeks of November. These deals will extend throughout the month and lead into even bigger price cuts as it gets closer to Black Friday weekend. Data suggests that online spending in the U.S. will top $2 billion every single day between November 1 and November 21. Then, that figure will increase to $3 billion between November 22 and December 3.

Meanwhile, expect Cyber Monday to surpass Black Friday as the biggest online holiday shopping day of the year.

As usual, mobile devices will play a large role in consumers’ holiday shopping plans. Mobile shopping is going to claim an even greater market share this year, accounting for $28.1 billion more spending than it did in 2019. That is a 55 percent year-over-year increase.

Even More Spending

It’s worth noting that the record-shattering $189 billion mentioned earlier is actually a conservative estimate. Analysts believe there are a number of factors at play that could cause an even bigger spike in holiday spending.

For instance, if another round of stimulus checks goes out in response to the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Likewise, if physical stores are shut down again, consumers who wouldn’t normally shop online will be forced to do so.

Adobe Analytics says that such events could add up to $11 billion in additional spending, bringing sales for the last two months of the year to upwards of $200 billion.

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